Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, who correctly predicted the presidential election results (not too difficult as it turns out), has decided to list the percentage possibility that each nominee of the major Oscar categories will win. He started with sports and then branched out into other fields, using statistical software and logistical regression to predict things. His Oscar predictions article was published in New York magazine, which you can access here. The illustrations he uses are cool; for example, the picture below illustrates his statistical belief that Slumdog Millionaire has a 99% chance of winning Best Picture at the Oscars on Sunday.
I recommend checking the article out- if nothing else to amp up excitement for the big day. Also, I will be liveblogging the Oscars on Sunday (
as I did with the Golden Globes). I do not think it actually posts live, but it will be available at the latest midnight on Sunday. Get your cocktails ready!
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